With President Bush expected to complete his new cabinet selections in a matter of weeks, sources said they see increasing chances that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick may be staying on in his current slot until at least sometime next year.

Observers expect the new cabinet selection to be driven by a desire of President Bush and his political advisors to avoid drastic changes while at the same time rewarding individuals that helped get him reelected. The resignations announced this week of Commerce Secretary Don Evans and Attorney General John Ashcroft as a result increase the possibility of Zoellick staying on longer, these sources said.

They also speculated that Zoellick may stay until the free-trade agreement with five Central American countries and the Dominican Republic is passed or longer if the Bush Administration will make a push to conclude the Doha round quickly.

A former cabinet member in a Republican administration said given the upcoming trade votes in Congress, it would be “very prudent” to keep as much of the USTR team in place as possible. This could mean Zoellick is not leaving immediately, he said. If Zoellick were to leave, the slot would likely go to individuals who were helpful in the current election campaign, observers said. This would give Gary Edson a shot at replacing Zoellick, since he left his White House position to join the campaign, they said. In addition, Commerce Undersecretary Grant Aldonas could have a chance at the USTR slot if Evans pushed hard for his appointment with President Bush, these sources said. But these sources dismissed reports that Deputy USTR Peter Allgeier is a potential candidate for USTR, and said speculation has increased that he may be retiring.

Separately, a U.S. official denied published reports that Allgeier could replace Zoellick. “I don’t expect that to happen,” the official said. The chance that Allgeier could succeed Zoellick is “not in the realm of possibility,” the official said. Sources also dismissed speculation that Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Josette Shiner could be a candidate to replace Zoellick if he were to leave because she has no independent power base other than her link to Zoellick.

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