Proponents of the Central America Free Trade Agreement see an opportunity after November's elections to push the trade deal through Congress in a possible lame duck session -- but only if voters choose to keep the status quo on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, congressional sources said. "Any change in the political environment would not bode well for this agreement," said a Senate Republican aide. "I can't see getting a single Democrat to vote for it if Kerry takes over," the aide added. Kerry has promised to renegotiate portions of the agreement to toughen labor and environmental standards. Even if Bush keeps the White House, sources said Congress would likely push the issue over until next year if either party makes significant gains in the House or Senate. "A lot depends upon November's election," said Rep. Kevin Brady, R-Texas, who is leading efforts to pass CAFTA in the House. "A lame duck is still a pretty powerful option," said Brady, who noted that a potential lame duck session would have to be "long enough to run the process and gear up the troops."

Despite a call from Senate Finance Chairman Grassley late last month for quick action on the CAFTA, there has been no change in the White House position that it will not seek a vote on the deal prior to the elections. If anything, those hopes have dimmed further because of a push by congressional leaders to approve intelligence changes recommended by the commission that investigated the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks adding to an already busy fall session. House Majority Whip Blunt in a meeting last month with El Salvador President Antonio Saca made it clear that a pre-election vote was not in the cards, but expressed openness to a possible lame duck vote, sources said. Grassley said on the Senate floor in late July that successful votes on the Australia and Morocco trade agreements gave momentum for the CAFTA vote. "I say, why stop now? ... I am calling on President Bush to send up the Central American Free Trade Agreement at the earliest opportunity," Grassley said.

But Finance ranking member Max Baucus, D-Mont., has urged the administration to hold off until next year. Trade Representative Zoellick, Central American trade ministers and Dominican Republic Secretary for Commerce and Industry Sonia Guzman Thursday afternoon will sign an agreement adding the Dominican Republic to the CAFTA. Central American diplomats are already laying the groundwork for a lame duck vote should the opportunity arise. They are seeking to have the Senate Finance and House Ways and Means committees complete preliminary work prior to October adjournment -- such as the "mock markups" that precede formal consideration of the agreement -- to be in a position to move quickly on the agreement after the elections, according to a Central American official. They are also sponsoring an event with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Los Angeles Aug. 17 to promote the deal. That event will feature El Salvador's President Saca and invited members of Congress, the source said. -- by Martin Vaughan

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