President Bush's re-election points to a busy trade agenda in the next Congress and has boosted confidence among backers of the free trade pact with Central American countries that the agreement will come up for a vote in 2005. But substantial opposition from House Democrats and some farm-state Republicans in the House poses the largest hurdle, and the election has done nothing to change that. "From the trade perspective, it is a status quo election. We continue to have support from Republicans and pro-business Democrats," said William Morley, vice president of congressional affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Business sources said it is likely House and Senate leaders will seek a single "CAFTA-plus" vote, bundling that agreement with other pending agreements -- for instance, trade deals in the works with Panama and Andean nations. Issues surrounding those agreements are similar, and such a bundling approach would prevent "trade fatigue," these sources argued. "If we're going to take on the sugar industry, you may as well only do it once," said one veteran trade lobbyist. U.S. sugar growers are mustering their resources to fight the agreement, which would increase sugar imports from the region and put farmers out of business, the domestic industry claims.

One key to business efforts to push CAFTA through will be re-building the coalition of House Democrats that backed trade negotiating authority for Bush in 2001. The impact of the retirement of Rep. Calvin Dooley, D-Calif., a champion of trade liberalizing initiatives, will doubtless be felt by Republicans. Moreover, seven of the 21 Democrats whose votes were crucial to Bush's victory in the House on trade negotiating authority will not be around for the 109th Congress, due to retirements and defeats in House and Senate races. That possible dwindling core of Democrats willing to cross party lines on the trade issue could strengthen the hands of farm- and textile-state Republicans, who were able to extract concessions from House GOP leaders in exchange for their votes in 2001.

In the first half of next year the House and Senate will vote on renewing U.S. membership in the World Trade Organization and may also have to vote on a two-year extension of trade negotiating authority, unless a likely Democratic move to cut off that authority is killed in committee. Unlike the CAFTA agreement, neither of those votes is expected to be a "heavy lift." The biggest prize for a second Bush administration would be the successful conclusion of the Doha multilateral round of trade talks, sources agreed. With Trade Representative Zoellick expected to step down after four years as the nation's top trade negotiator, speculation is swirling about his possible replacement. Some business officials have encouraged Bush transition officials to consider Dooley for the post, in the hope of attracting Democratic support for their trade initiatives. Other names mentioned include OMB Director Bolten, a former USTR general counsel and trade counsel on the Senate Finance Committee, White House National Economic Adviser Gary Edson and Commerce Undersecretary Grant Aldonas.

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